The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

52 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2016

See all articles by Elena Verdolini

Elena Verdolini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Laura Diaz Anadon

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Date Written: July 28, 2016

Abstract

Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives:

(1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making;

(2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and

(3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches.

We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.

Keywords: Energy Technologies, R&D Investments, Expert Elicitations, Uncertainty

JEL Classification: Q5, Q55

Suggested Citation

Verdolini, Elena and Diaz Anadon, Laura and Baker, Erin and Bosetti, Valentina and Reis, Lara, The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations (July 28, 2016). FEEM Working Paper No. 47.2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2815367 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2815367

Elena Verdolini (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Laura Diaz Anadon

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ( email )

79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department ( email )

Department of Operations and Information Managemen
Amherst, MA 01003
United States

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Lara Reis

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

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