Brexit Results: Macroeconomic Risks

Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2016, No 7, pp. 51-53

3 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2016

See all articles by Eugene Goryunov

Eugene Goryunov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Anna Kiyutsevskaya

Center for Macroeconomic Research, Alfa Bank

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: July 28, 2016

Abstract

The United Kingdom’s potential exit from the EU poses a number of macroeconomic risks. Considering the overall growth of uncertainty, the recession in the UK cannot be ruled out. The decline in capital inflows to the UK economy can be predicted, which could pose a threat to the stability of the balance of payments and the exchange rate of the British Pound. Obviously, the exchange of goods and services between the UK and the EU will suffer, as well as labour mobility and the British labour market. According to various estimates, Britain can lose up to 5% of GDP as a result of capital outflows and shrinking international trade.

Keywords: Russian economy, macroeconomic risks

JEL Classification: E31, E43, E51

Suggested Citation

Goryunov, Eugene and Kiyutsevskaya, Anna and Trunin, Pavel, Brexit Results: Macroeconomic Risks (July 28, 2016). Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2016, No 7, pp. 51-53, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2815458 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2815458

Eugene Goryunov (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny per., 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Anna Kiyutsevskaya

Center for Macroeconomic Research, Alfa Bank ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

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