The Signalling Content of Asset Prices for Inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing

36 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2016

See all articles by Leo de Haan

Leo de Haan

De Nederlandsche Bank

Jan Willem van den End

De Nederlandsche Bank

Date Written: July 28, 2016

Abstract

We investigate the information content of financial variables as signalling devices of two abnormal inflationary regimes:

(1) very low inflation or deflation, and

(2) high inflation.

Specifically, we determine the information content of equity and house prices, private credit volumes, and sovereign and corporate bond yields, for 11 advanced economies over the past three decades, using both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a logit model. The outcomes show that high asset prices more often signal high inflation than low inflation/deflation. However, in some countries, high asset prices and low bond yields are a significant indicator of low inflation or deflation as well. The transmission time of financial developments to inflation can be quite long (up to 8 quarters). For monetary policy, these findings imply that stimulating asset prices through Quantitative Easing (QE) can effectively influence inflation, but that the effects are quite uncertain, both in timing and direction.

Keywords: Quantitative Easing, Inflation, Financial markets

JEL Classification: E31, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

de Haan, Leo and van den End, Jan Willem, The Signalling Content of Asset Prices for Inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing (July 28, 2016). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 516. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2815490 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2815490

Leo de Haan (Contact Author)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 5243539 (Phone)
+31 20 5242514 (Fax)

Jan Willem van den End

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

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