Adapting Basel's A-IRB Models for IFRS 9 Purposes

Abstract

Banks around the globe are implementing IFRS 9 which is a considerable effort. A key element of IFRS 9 is a forward-looking “expected loss” impairment model, which is a significant shift from the current incurred loss model. In this paper, we examine how we may use A-IRB models in the estimation of expected credit losses for IFRS 9 purposes. We highlight the necessary model adaptations required to satisfy the new accounting standard. By leveraging on the A-IRB models, banks can lessen their modeling efforts in fulfilling IFRS 9 and capture the synergy among different modeling endeavors within the institutions. In outlining the proposed PD, LGD, and EAD models, we provide detailed examples of how they may be implemented on secured lending. Moreover, in discussing the issues related to the estimation of the expected credit loss for IFRS 9, we highlight the challenges involved and propose practical solutions to deal with them. For instance, we propose the use of a convexity adjustment approach to circumvent the need of assigning probabilities in multiple-scenario analysis.

Keywords: Advanced internal rating-based (A-IRB) approach; IFRS 9; Basel; internal models; probability of default (PD); loss given default (LGD); exposure at default (EaD); expected loss (EL); provisions; impairment loss estimation; secured lending

JEL Classification: G21, G28, G32, M48