Assessing Regional Risks from Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

31 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2016

See all articles by George Verikios

George Verikios

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies

Maura Sullivan

Risk Management Solutions

Pane Stojanovski

Risk Management Solutions

James Giesecke

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies

Gordon Wood

Brown University

Date Written: August 2016

Abstract

We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.

Suggested Citation

Verikios, George and Sullivan, Maura and Stojanovski, Pane and Giesecke, James and Wood, Gordon, Assessing Regional Risks from Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis (August 2016). The World Economy, Vol. 39, Issue 8, pp. 1225-1255, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2819236 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12296

George Verikios (Contact Author)

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies ( email )

Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/

Maura Sullivan

Risk Management Solutions

London EC3M 1AJ
United Kingdom

Pane Stojanovski

Risk Management Solutions

London EC3M 1AJ
United Kingdom

James Giesecke

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies ( email )

Menzies Building
Wellington Road
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
+61 3 99052398 (Phone)
+61 3 99052426 (Fax)

Gordon Wood

Brown University

Box 1860
Providence, RI 02912
United States

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