Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC
Posted: 27 Sep 2001
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.
Keywords: Fiscal forecasting, Forecast comparison, Loss function
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