Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC

Posted: 27 Sep 2001

See all articles by Michael J. Artis

Michael J. Artis

University of Manchester - Institute for Political & Economic Governance (IPEG)

Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino

Bocconi University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Abstract

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting, Forecast comparison, Loss function

Suggested Citation

Artis, Michael J. and Marcellino, Massimiliano, Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=281962

Michael J. Artis (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - Institute for Political & Economic Governance (IPEG) ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Massimiliano Marcellino

Bocconi University - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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