Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness

41 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2016 Last revised: 12 Jun 2021

See all articles by Steven D. Levitt

Steven D. Levitt

University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); American Bar Foundation

Date Written: August 2016

Abstract

Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This paper reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), those who make a change (regardless of the outcome of the coin toss) report being substantially happier two months and six months later. This correlation, however, need not reflect a causal impact. To assess causality, I use the outcome of a coin toss. Individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are much more likely to make a change and are happier six months later than those who were told by the coin to maintain the status quo. The results of this paper suggest that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.

Suggested Citation

Levitt, Steven D., Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness (August 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22487, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2819892

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