Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: A Time-Series Perspective
25 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 2016
This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.
Keywords: growth reversal, industrial revolution, Malthusian model, trend growth
JEL Classification: N13, O47
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