Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: A Time-Series Perspective

25 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2016

See all articles by Nicholas Crafts

Nicholas Crafts

University of Warwick

Terence C. Mills

Loughborough University - Department of Economics

Date Written: August 2016

Abstract

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Keywords: growth reversal, industrial revolution, Malthusian model, trend growth

JEL Classification: N13, O47

Suggested Citation

Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C., Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: A Time-Series Perspective (August 2016). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11427. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2820082

Nicholas Crafts (Contact Author)

University of Warwick ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd.
Coventry, West Midlands CV4 8UW
United Kingdom

Terence C. Mills

Loughborough University - Department of Economics ( email )

York House
Loughborough LE11 3TU
Great Britain
+44 1509 222703 (Phone)
+44 1509 223910 (Fax)

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