Gold, Platinum, and Expected Stock Returns
58 Pages Posted: 12 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 1, 2016
The ratio of gold to platinum prices (GP) reveals persistent variation in risk and proxies for an important economic state variable. GP predicts future stock returns in the time-series, explains stock return variation in the cross-section, and is significantly correlated with option-implied tail risk measures. Contrary to conventional wisdom, gold prices fall in recessions, albeit by less than platinum prices. A model featuring recursive preferences, time-varying tail risk, and preference shocks for gold and platinum can account for asset pricing dynamics of equity, gold, and platinum markets, rationalize the return predictability, and explain why gold prices fall in bad times.
Keywords: gold, platinum, return predictability, tail risk, disaster risk
JEL Classification: G10, G11, G12, G17
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation