60 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2016 Last revised: 18 Nov 2016
Date Written: November 17, 2016
We uncover a mechanical link in the ability of option prices to predict stock returns. Theoretically, stock illiquidity creates asymmetric hedging costs for puts versus calls, which in turn leads to parity deviations that reveal the expected return of the stock. Empirically, we identify this hedging mechanism by focusing on stocks with zero option volume, and banned stocks during the short-sale ban of 2008, which could only be shorted by option dealers for hedging purposes. We proxy for short-sale costs using the equity lending fees. It is unlikely that our results are driven by informed trading in the options market.
Keywords: Put-Call Parity, Stock Return Predictability, Hedging Costs, Short-Selling
JEL Classification: G11, G12, C13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Goncalves-Pinto, Luis and Xu, Jing, How Does Stock Illiquidity Affect the Informational Role of Option Prices? (November 17, 2016). 29th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2820422 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2820422