Tenure Choice and the Future of Homeownership

38 Pages Posted: 11 Aug 2016 Last revised: 14 Aug 2016

See all articles by Kevin A. Park

Kevin A. Park

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development - Office of Policy Development and Research

Christopher E. Herbert

Harvard University - Joint Center for Housing Studies

Roberto Quercia

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of City and Regional Planning

Date Written: November 1, 2014

Abstract

The future of American homeownership is being pushed in contradictory directions by demographic changes. The aging of the Baby Boomers would support higher levels of homeownership, but the increasing minority share of the population and the persistent racial gap in homeownership acts to reduce homeownership. Layered on top of these demographics is an uncertain mortgage underwriting environment affected by policy decisions and general economic conditions.

This paper projects that the number of homeowners will increase from roughly 82 million in 2015 to between 83 and 102 million by 2035, depending on assumptions concerning immigration and the underwriting environment. The homeownership rate is not expected to be substantially different from today’s rate of almost 65 percent under normal homeownership environments, but could reach as high as 68 percent if the loose underwriting environment of 2005 recurs, or as low as 57 percent if the current restrictive environment is institutionalized.

Keywords: homeownership, mortgage, credit, demographics, housing, tenure

JEL Classification: R21, R30, R31, G21

Suggested Citation

Park, Kevin Alan and Herbert, Christopher E. and Quercia, Roberto G., Tenure Choice and the Future of Homeownership (November 1, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2820574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2820574

Kevin Alan Park (Contact Author)

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development - Office of Policy Development and Research ( email )

451 Seventh Street SW
Washington, DC 20230
United States

Christopher E. Herbert

Harvard University - Joint Center for Housing Studies ( email )

1033 Massachusetts Ave, 5th Floor
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Roberto G. Quercia

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of City and Regional Planning ( email )

New East Building
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3140
United States
919-962-4766 (Phone)
Not available (Fax)

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
30
Abstract Views
305
PlumX Metrics