Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability

20 Pages Posted: 10 Aug 2016

See all articles by Thomas A. Mroz

Thomas A. Mroz

Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies

Gabriel Picone

Department of Economics

Frank A. Sloan

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management; Duke University, Fuqua School of Business-Economics Group; Duke University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Arseniy P. Yashkin

Duke University

Date Written: August 2016

Abstract

We estimate a dynamic multistage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, whereas the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.

Suggested Citation

Mroz, Thomas A. and Picone, Gabriel and Sloan, Frank A. and Yashkin, Arseniy P., Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability (August 2016). International Economic Review, Vol. 57, Issue 3, pp. 915-934, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2820796 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12180

Thomas A. Mroz (Contact Author)

Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies ( email )

P.O. Box 3992
Atlanta, GA 30302-3992
United States

Gabriel Picone

Department of Economics ( email )

4202 E. Fowler Avenue
Tampa, FL 33620-5500
United States
813-974-6537 (Phone)
813-974-6510 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.coba.usf.edu/departments/economics/facu

Frank A. Sloan

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management ( email )

Box 90253
Durham, NC 27708
United States
919-684-8047 (Phone)
919-684-6246 (Fax)

Duke University, Fuqua School of Business-Economics Group ( email )

Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0097
United States

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Arseniy P. Yashkin

Duke University

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

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