Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election

11 Pages Posted: 14 Aug 2016

Date Written: August 11, 2016

Abstract

The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama’s reelection in 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent Democrats losing with 48.2% of the two-party vote.

Keywords: fiscal model, 2016 forecast, presidential election

JEL Classification: ZOO

Suggested Citation

Cuzan, Alfred G., Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election (August 11, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2821878 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2821878

Alfred G. Cuzan (Contact Author)

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
40
Abstract Views
223
PlumX Metrics