Tracking and Stress-Testing U.S. Household Leverage

50 Pages Posted: 12 Aug 2016 Last revised: 21 Sep 2017

See all articles by Andreas Fuster

Andreas Fuster

Swiss National Bank - Financial Stability

Benedict Guttman-Kenney

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Andrew Haughwout

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2016-08-01

Abstract

Borrowers’ housing equity is an important component of their wealth and a critical determinant of their vulnerability to shocks. In this paper, we create a unique data set that enables us to provide a comprehensive look at the ratio of housing debt to housing values—what we refer to as household leverage—at the micro level. An advantage of our data is that we are able to study the evolution of household leverage over time and locations in the United States. We find that leverage was at a very low point just prior to the large declines in house prices that began in 2006, and rose very quickly thereafter, despite reductions in housing debt. As of early 2016, leverage statistics are approaching their pre-crisis levels, as house prices have risen more than 30 percent nationally since 2012. We use our borrower-level leverage measures and another unique feature of our data—updated borrower credit scores—to conduct “stress tests”: projecting leverage and defaults under various adverse house price scenarios. We find that while the riskiness of the household sector has declined significantly since 2012, it remains vulnerable to very severe house price declines.

Keywords: mortgages, leverage, stress testing

JEL Classification: D14, E27, G21

Suggested Citation

Fuster, Andreas and Guttman-Kenney, Benedict and Haughwout, Andrew F., Tracking and Stress-Testing U.S. Household Leverage (2016-08-01). FRB of NY Staff Report No. 787, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2822186

Andreas Fuster (Contact Author)

Swiss National Bank - Financial Stability ( email )

Boersenstrasse 15
Zurich, CH-8022
Switzerland

Benedict Guttman-Kenney

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Andrew F. Haughwout

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States
212-720-2685 (Phone)
212-720-1844 (Fax)

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