Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas, and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2014. – 416 p. Pp. 25-95

71 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2016

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

Date Written: August 15, 2014

Abstract

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing. Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.

Keywords: medium-term cycles, Juglar cycles, long cycles of Kondratieff, long waves, downswing phase, upswing phase, crisis, resources, business strategies, generations of businessmen

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid and Korotayev, Andrey, Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles (August 15, 2014). Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas, and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2014. – 416 p. Pp. 25-95 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2823492

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

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Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

Andrey Korotayev

Russian State University for the Humanities

6
Miusskaya Square
Moscow, GSP-3, 125993
Russia

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