29 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 16, 2016
An extensive literature demonstrates that local campaign efforts in the UK generally pay electoral dividends for parties. As a result, rational parties focus campaign efforts most in seats where the electoral outcome is not pre-determined, and where a few more votes either way could change the result. An important indicator of where such constituencies can be found is provided by prior election results, and previous research has shown that rational parties tend to focus their campaigns most heavily on those seats where the previous election was close and less in seats where in the past they either lost badly or won comfortably. However, much less attention has been given to how local parties react to new information showing how the competitive situation in their area is changing as a general election approaches. The paper uses data from a rare set of local opinion polls conducted in around a quarter of British constituencies in the run-up to the 2015 UK General Election. Although hampered by their generally small size, limited fund-raising capacity and reliance on volunteers, local parties do respond to new information. Results indicate that parties tended to put more effort into local campaigns in seats where an opinion poll had been carried out than in otherwise similar seats where one had not. And the more competitive the poll suggested their race was, the more resources they devoted to it.
Keywords: campaign spending; constituency polling; British general elections
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Hartman, Todd K and Pattie, Charles and Johnston, Ron, Learning on the Job? Adapting Party Campaign Strategy to Changing Information on the Local Political Context (August 16, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2824507