An Analysis of Jerzy Neyman's Imaginary, Non Existent, Principle of Indifference, Urn Ball Example Supposedly Taken from J M Keynes's A Treatise on Probability (1921)

Scholedge International Journal of Management & Development, Vol. 3, No. 10 (2016) pp. 176-184

11 Pages Posted: 22 Aug 2016 Last revised: 25 May 2017

See all articles by Michael Emmett Brady

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: August 17, 2016

Abstract

Jerzy Neyman analyzed an imaginary, non existent, urn ball problem that he thought was taken from J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability in his Lectures and Conferences on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (1952). Neyman apparently never read the book for himself. He apparently relied on some, other, unknown source to provide him with the problem that he thought came from J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability.

The problem can be analyzed based on an “as if” approach to discover if Neyman realized that Keynes’s Principle of Indifference is a substantially different technique from Laplace’s concoction that, when applied, will lead to substantially different answers from those obtained by the use of Laplace’s Principle of Non–Sufficient Knowledge.

Keywords: ignorance, knowledge

JEL Classification: B10, B12

Suggested Citation

Brady, Michael Emmett, An Analysis of Jerzy Neyman's Imaginary, Non Existent, Principle of Indifference, Urn Ball Example Supposedly Taken from J M Keynes's A Treatise on Probability (1921) (August 17, 2016). Scholedge International Journal of Management & Development, Vol. 3, No. 10 (2016) pp. 176-184, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2824978 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2824978

Michael Emmett Brady (Contact Author)

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

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