Unemployed, Now What? The Effect of Immigration on Unemployment Transitions of Native-Born Workers in the United States

Levy Economics Institute, Working Papers Series No. 870

37 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2016

See all articles by Fernando Rios‐Avila

Fernando Rios‐Avila

Bard College - The Levy Economics Institute

Gustavo J. Canavire-Bacarreza

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 17, 2016

Abstract

Although one would expect the unemployed to be the population most likely affected by immigration, most of the studies have concentrated on investigating the effects immigration has on the employed population. Little is known of the effects of immigration on labor market transitions out of unemployment. Using the basic monthly Current Population Survey from 2001-13 we match data for individuals who were interviewed in two consecutive months and identify workers who transition out of unemployment. We employ a multinomial model to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment, using state-level immigration statistics. The results suggest that immigration does not affect the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed, but it is also associated with higher probabilities of workers leaving the labor force. This effect impacts mostly young and less educated people.

Keywords: Immigration, Unemployment Duration, Labor Force Transition

JEL Classification: J1, J6

Suggested Citation

Rios‐Avila, Fernando and Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier, Unemployed, Now What? The Effect of Immigration on Unemployment Transitions of Native-Born Workers in the United States (August 17, 2016). Levy Economics Institute, Working Papers Series No. 870. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2825295 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2825295

Fernando Rios‐Avila (Contact Author)

Bard College - The Levy Economics Institute ( email )

Blithewood
Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000
United States

Gustavo Javier Canavire Bacarreza

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) ( email )

1300 New York Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20577
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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