Stimulating Housing Markets

55 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2016 Last revised: 14 Sep 2016

David Berger

Northwestern University

Nicholas Turner

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis (OTA); U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis (OTA)

Eric Zwick

University of Chicago - Finance

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Date Written: July 16, 2016

Abstract

This paper studies temporary policy incentives designed to address capital overhang by inducing asset demand from buyers in the private market. Using variation across local geographies in ex ante program exposure and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the First-Time Homebuyer Credit induced a cumulative increase in home sales of at least 382 thousand, or 7.4 percent, nationally. We find little evidence of a sharp reversal of the policy response; instead, demand appears to come from several years in the future. The program likely sped the process of reallocating homes from distressed sellers to high value buyers and stabilized house prices. The response is concentrated in the existing home sales market, implying the stimulative effects of the program were less important than its role in accelerating reallocation.

Suggested Citation

Berger, David and Turner, Nicholas and Zwick, Eric, Stimulating Housing Markets (July 16, 2016). Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 16-16; Kreisman Working Papers Series in Housing Law and Policy No. 40. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2826598

David Berger

Northwestern University ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Nicholas Turner

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) ( email )

1500 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 22203
United States

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) ( email )

1500 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 22203
United States

Eric Zwick (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Finance ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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