Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area: Recent Evidence Based on Survey Data

29 Pages Posted: 29 Aug 2016

See all articles by Tomasz Lyziak

Tomasz Lyziak

National Bank of Poland - Bureau of Macroeconomic Research

Maritta Paloviita

Bank of Finland - Research

Date Written: August 29, 2016

Abstract

The paper analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank’s ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that longer-term inflation forecasts have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term forecasts and to actual HICP inflation in the post-crisis period. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term professional forecasts and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.

Keywords: Inflation expectations, anchoring, survey data, euro area, financial crisis

JEL Classification: D84, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

Lyziak, Tomasz and Paloviita, Maritta, Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area: Recent Evidence Based on Survey Data (August 29, 2016). ECB Working Paper No. 1945, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2831346 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2831346

Tomasz Lyziak (Contact Author)

National Bank of Poland - Bureau of Macroeconomic Research ( email )

Warsaw
Poland

Maritta Paloviita

Bank of Finland - Research ( email )

P.O. Box 160
FIN-00101 Helsinki
Finland
+358 9 1831 (Phone)
+358 9 1832560 (Fax)

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