Assessment of Future Energy Demand: A Methodological Review

Abstract

The paper describes the mainstream energy scenarios and modelling approaches to illustrate the state of the art, and to stimulate thinking as to how these approaches can be used and improved for better assessment of energy demand. It suggests that there is a need for more sophisticated energy demand models and/or better scenarios, in particular using insights from Behavioural Sciences. The paper draws attention to the ways scenarios are being developed and used (and abused), and describes in broad brushstrokes different approaches for improving the usefulness of models and scenarios, and for making robust decisions in face of deep uncertainties regarding scenarios and modelling outcomes.

Keywords: Energy demand, Consumer behaviour, Energy scenarios and models, Deep uncertainties, Behavioural science