Seasonality in Government Bond Returns and Factor Premia
25 Pages Posted: 31 Aug 2016 Last revised: 7 Dec 2016
Date Written: December 6, 2016
The study investigated both the January effect and the "sell-in-May-and-go-away" anomaly in government bond returns. It also tested whether the two seasonal patterns impact the performance of fixed-income factor strategies related to volatility, credit risk, value, and momentum premia. Our examination of government bond markets in 25 countries for years 1992-2016 proved that both the bond returns and factor premia had remained unaffected by the January and "sell-in-May" effects. These seasonal patterns in government bond markets appear to be merely a statistical artefact.
Keywords: seasonal anomalies, calendar anomalies, January effect, sell in May and go away, Halloween indicator, government bonds, sovereign bonds, fixed-income securities
JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation