Nominal Income Versus Taylor-Type Rules in Practice

ESSEC WORKING PAPER 1610

39 Pages Posted: 31 Aug 2016

See all articles by Jonathan Benchimol

Jonathan Benchimol

Bank of Israel

Fourçans André

ESSEC Business School - Economics Department

Date Written: July 4, 2016

Abstract

Since the beginning of the financial crisis, a lively debate has emerged regarding which monetary policy rule the Fed (and other central banks) should follow, if any. To clarify this debate, several questions must be answered. Which monetary policy rule best the historical data? Which monetary policy rule best minimizes economic uncertainty and the Fed’s loss function? Which rule is best in terms of household welfare? Among the different rules, are NGDP growth or level targeting rules a good option, and when? Do they perform better than Taylor-type rules? To answer these questions, we use Bayesian estimations to test the Smets and Wouters (2007) model under nine different monetary policy rules with US data from 1955 to 2015 and over three different sub-periods. We find that when considering only the central bank’s loss function, the estimates generally indicate the superiority of NGDP level targeting rules, whatever the period. However, if other criteria are considered, the central bank’s objectives are not consistently met by a single rule for all periods.

Keywords: Monetary policy, NGDP targeting, Taylor rule, DSGE model

JEL Classification: E52, E58, E32

Suggested Citation

Benchimol, Jonathan and André, Fourçans, Nominal Income Versus Taylor-Type Rules in Practice (July 4, 2016). ESSEC WORKING PAPER 1610. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2832117 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2832117

Jonathan Benchimol (Contact Author)

Bank of Israel ( email )

Bank of Israel Street
P.O. Box 780
Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91907
Israel
+972-2-6552641 (Phone)
+972-2-6669407 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.jonathanbenchimol.com/

Fourçans André

ESSEC Business School - Economics Department ( email )

95021 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex
France

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