Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2016-031

27 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2016

See all articles by Jakub Cerveny

Jakub Cerveny

Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Jan C. van Ours

Tilburg University - Department of Economics; University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Martin van Tuijl

Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 22, 2016

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.

Keywords: association football, goal-scoring, red card, world cup football matches

JEL Classification: Z29

Suggested Citation

Cerveny, Jakub and van Ours, Jan C. and Tuijl, Martin van, Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches (August 22, 2016). CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2016-031. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2833190 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2833190

Jakub Cerveny (Contact Author)

Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Jan C. Van Ours

Tilburg University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2880 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3042 (Fax)

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

Melbourne, 3010
Australia

Martin van Tuijl

Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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