Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches
CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2016-031
27 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2016
Date Written: August 22, 2016
We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Keywords: association football, goal-scoring, red card, world cup football matches
JEL Classification: Z29
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation