Uncertainty as a Factor in Investment Decisions: The Case of the Russian Federation's Regions

31 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2016

See all articles by Irina Levina

Irina Levina

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Gregory Kisunko

World Bank

Israel Marques

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Andrei A. Yakovlev

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Date Written: August 30, 2016

Abstract

This paper argues that although the bulk of the literature tends to focus on regulatory uncertainty stemming from formal practices, uncertainty that comes from unpredictable informal practices surrounding regulation is an underexplored additional form of regulatory uncertainty. The paper uses the results of empirical analysis of several unique firm-level data sets to argue that firms in Russian institutional environments adapt to informal practices of business-government interactions, so long as these practices are predictable. The paper draws a distinction between differences in levels of relatively well-ordered (and often centralized) and therefore predictable corruption?a predictable component of the cost of doing business?and variation in experiences with corruption, which often results from decentralized, unconstrained ( "administrative" ) corruption and the rent-seeking incentives of lower level officials. It argues that a significant obstacle to investment decisions at the regional level is not so much formal or informal rules per se, but lack of predictability of their application. It also examines in-country inconsistency in property rights enforcement as another source of underexplored regulatory uncertainty tied to informal practice. Unlike administrative corruption, inconsistent property rights enforcement is a fundamental, existential threat to businesses. To test this hypothesis, the paper draws on a measure that captures private "raiders'" attacks on firms?hostile, often violent takeovers of firms by outsiders aided and often abetted by law enforcement agencies. The paper argues that the greater is the number of raider attacks for a given region, the greater is the uncertainty and the less likely is investment.

Keywords: Common Property Resource Development

Suggested Citation

Levina, Irina and Kisunko, Gregory and Marques, Israel and Yakovlev, Andrei A., Uncertainty as a Factor in Investment Decisions: The Case of the Russian Federation's Regions (August 30, 2016). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7806, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2836556

Irina Levina (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow) ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Gregory Kisunko

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Israel Marques

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow) ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Andrei A. Yakovlev

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow) ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
73
Abstract Views
690
Rank
612,334
PlumX Metrics