Systemic Risk in Carry-Trade Portfolios

Abstract

Risk contagion between carry trade portfolios and stock markets had been explored in literatures, leaving inconsistent controversy. Instead of exploring ordinary return-volatility spillovers, this paper focuses on a systemic contagion, the tail risk conditional on extreme events in other markets. Using a conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) model, we contribute to this line of literature by showing that there is bilateral systemic contagion between carry trades and stock markets in the U.S., European, or Asia-Pacific regions. Such a systemic contagion is particularly significant during the 2000–2001 dot-com bubble and 2007–2009 U.S. credit crisis.

Keywords: Carry Trade; Systemic Contagion; CoVaR Model; Financial Crisis

JEL Classification: G01; G15; G21