Assessing and Predicting Financial Vulnerability of Italian Households: A Micro-Macro Approach

19 Pages Posted: 18 Sep 2016

See all articles by Alessandra Bettocchi

Alessandra Bettocchi

Prometeia

Elena Giarda

Dipartimento di Analisi e Ricerca Economica, Prometeia; Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Center for Research in Banking and Finance (CEFIN); Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti

Cristiana Moriconi

Prometeia

Federica Orsini

Prometeia

Rita Romeo

Prometeia

Date Written: September 2016

Abstract

This study develops a micro-founded model to analyse the economic-financial conditions of Italian households. Initially, an indicator is constructed for the base year 2014, which identifies vulnerable households based on the budget constraint and the composition of their financial portfolio. Subsequently, the impact of the predicted trends of macro-economic variables on the indicator is calculated in order to monitor its evolution in the short term (2015-2017). The empirical analysis is based on the Survey of Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy and on the macroeconomic forecasts of Prometeia. The macroeconomic scenario for the period 2015-2017 implies a progressive reduction in the percentage of vulnerable households for the full extent of the projection.

Keywords: households’ financial vulnerability, micro-founded models, financial margin, debt

JEL Classification: D10, D14, G10

Suggested Citation

Bettocchi, Alessandra and Giarda, Elena and Moriconi, Cristiana and Orsini, Federica and Romeo, Rita, Assessing and Predicting Financial Vulnerability of Italian Households: A Micro-Macro Approach (September 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2839352 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2839352

Alessandra Bettocchi

Prometeia ( email )

Italy

Elena Giarda (Contact Author)

Dipartimento di Analisi e Ricerca Economica, Prometeia ( email )

Via G. Marconi 43
Bologna, 40122
Italy
+390516480911 (Phone)
+39051220753 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.prometeia.it/en/research-insights

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Center for Research in Banking and Finance (CEFIN) ( email )

via Berengario 51
Modena, modena I-41100
Italy

Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti ( email )

Via Roentgen 1,
Room 5.C1-11
Milan, Milano 20136
Italy

Cristiana Moriconi

Prometeia ( email )

Italy

Federica Orsini

Prometeia ( email )

Italy

Rita Romeo

Prometeia ( email )

Italy

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