Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China

15 Pages Posted: 16 Sep 2016

See all articles by Robert J. Barro

Robert J. Barro

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September–October 2016

Abstract

From the perspective of conditional convergence, China's GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3–4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle‐income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper‐income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Keywords: China, convergence, dispersion, economic growth

JEL Classification: O40, O47

Suggested Citation

Barro, Robert J., Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China (September–October 2016). China & World Economy, Vol. 24, Issue 5, pp. 5-19, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2839579 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12172

Robert J. Barro (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-495-3203 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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