Current Risks in the CESEE Residential Property Market: Evidence from the OENB Euro Survey

The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and Its Analysis – 2015 Edition

16 Pages Posted: 22 Sep 2016 Last revised: 23 Sep 2016

See all articles by Elisabeth Beckmann

Elisabeth Beckmann

Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)

Antje Hildebrandt

Bank of Finland - Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)

Krisztina Jäger-Gyovai

Independent

Date Written: August 9, 2016

Abstract

After a pronounced boom-bust cycle during the global financial crisis, house prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) are now recovering but still remain below precrisis levels. Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey of households shows that every third household considers finding a new residence difficult, with the perceived difficulty being particularly high in areas of low bank penetration and among low income households and households whose highest level of education is primary education. Foreign currency mortgage holders are found to be more frequently in arrears in Hungary and Serbia than in other CESEE countries; the exchange rate and interest rate differential risks of foreign currency mortgages have increased in several countries, however. Loan arrears are high in general, and households in arrears are at their financial limits. At the same time, demand for housing loans is found to be increasing again.

Keywords: residential property markets, housing finance, household survey, Central, Eastern

JEL Classification: D14, F36, P2, P5, R21, R3

Suggested Citation

Beckmann, Elisabeth and Hildebrandt, Antje and Jäger-Gyovai, Krisztina, Current Risks in the CESEE Residential Property Market: Evidence from the OENB Euro Survey (August 9, 2016). The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and Its Analysis – 2015 Edition, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2841637

Elisabeth Beckmann (Contact Author)

Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) ( email )

Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, PO Box 61
Vienna,
1010 Vienna, A-1011
Austria

Antje Hildebrandt

Bank of Finland - Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) ( email )

Helsinki 00101
Finland

Krisztina Jäger-Gyovai

Independent ( email )

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