The Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in Mexico

International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 43 Iss 11 pp. 1082-1095. DOI: 10.1108/IJSE-04-2015-0084

Posted: 23 Sep 2016 Last revised: 12 Mar 2017

See all articles by Jorge Garza-Rodriguez

Jorge Garza-Rodriguez

Universidad de Monterrey

Jennifer Fernandez-Ramos

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM)

Gabriela Morales-Ramirez

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) - Department of Economics

Ana K. Garcia-Guerra

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 21, 2016

Abstract

More than half of the Mexican population lives in poverty. While there are many studies about poverty in Mexico, there are very few studies about the dynamics of poverty. The purpose of this paper is to measure chronic and transient poverty in Mexico and to analyze its determinants.

Design/methodology/approach Based on the spells approach, a transition matrix was estimated and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables upon the dynamics of poverty.

Findings It was found that 36 percent of households are chronically poor and 64 percent are transiently poor. The results show that variables directly related to chronic poverty are: belonging to an ethnic minority group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. Having more education, having more assets, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are variables positively related with the probability of escaping poverty.

Originality/value To our knowledge, this is the first study on the dynamics of poverty using the spells approach for Mexico as a whole, not just for urban areas. The value of this work is that it estimates chronic and transitory poverty in Mexico as well as their possible determinants. The study findings can be used by the government to design and implement public policies to alleviate both chronic and transient poverty in Mexico.

Keywords: Mexico, Poverty, Chronic poverty, Transient poverty

JEL Classification: I3, I30, I31, I32

Suggested Citation

Garza-Rodriguez, Jorge and Fernandez-Ramos, Jennifer and Morales-Ramirez, Gabriela and Garcia-Guerra, Ana K., The Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in Mexico (September 21, 2016). International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 43 Iss 11 pp. 1082-1095. DOI: 10.1108/IJSE-04-2015-0084, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2841877

Jorge Garza-Rodriguez (Contact Author)

Universidad de Monterrey ( email )

venida Ignacio Morones Prieto 4500 Pte
San Pedro, 66238
Mexico

Jennifer Fernandez-Ramos

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) ( email )

Av. Morones Prieto 4500 Pte.
Monterrey, Nuevo León 66238
Mexico

Gabriela Morales-Ramirez

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) - Department of Economics ( email )

venida Ignacio Morones Prieto 4500 Pte
San Pedro, 66238
Mexico

Ana K. Garcia-Guerra

Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) - Department of Economics ( email )

venida Ignacio Morones Prieto 4500 Pte
San Pedro, 66238
Mexico

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