Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate

Posted: 24 Sep 2016

See all articles by Matteo Cervellati

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Klaus F. Zimmermann

Global Labor Organization (GLO); UNU-MERIT; Maastricht University, Department of Economics; Free University Berlin; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Journal of Population Economics

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Date Written: September 2016

Abstract

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Keywords: secular stagnation, long-term development, income growth, demographic transition

JEL Classification: C54, E10, J11, J13, J18, N30, O10, O40

Suggested Citation

Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe and Zimmermann, Klaus F., Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate (September 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2842488

Matteo Cervellati (Contact Author)

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

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Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

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Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) ( email )

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Klaus F. Zimmermann

Global Labor Organization (GLO) ( email )

Bonn
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UNU-MERIT ( email )

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University of Bonn

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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