Reading between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

67 Pages Posted: 26 Sep 2016

See all articles by Hannes Felix Mueller

Hannes Felix Mueller

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Christopher Rauh

University of Cambridge - Cambridge-INET Institute

Date Written: September 2016

Abstract

This article provides a new methodology to predict armed conflict by using newspaper text. Through machine learning, vast quantities of newspaper text are reduced to interpretable topics. We propose the use of the within-country variation of these topics to predict the timing of conflict. This allows us to avoid the tendency of predicting conflict only in countries where it occurred before. We show that the within-country variation of topics is an extremely robust predictor of conflict and becomes particularly useful when new conflict risks arise. Two aspects seem to be responsible for these features. Topics provide depth because they consist of changing, long lists of terms which makes them able to capture the changing context of conflict. At the same time topics provide width because they summarize all text, including coverage of stabilizing factors.

Keywords: Civil War, conflict, Forecasting, Latent Dirichlet Allocation., Machine Learning, panel data, Topic Models

JEL Classification: C81, H12, H56, O11

Suggested Citation

Mueller, Hannes Felix and Rauh, Christopher, Reading between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text (September 2016). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11516, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2843535

Hannes Felix Mueller (Contact Author)

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona ( email )

Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193
Spain

Christopher Rauh

University of Cambridge - Cambridge-INET Institute ( email )

Sidgwick Avenue
Cambridge, CB3 9DD
United Kingdom

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