'Hidden Profiles' in Corporate Prediction Markets: The Impact of Public Information Precision and Social Interactions

Forthcoming, MIS Quarterly

67 Pages Posted: 3 Oct 2016

See all articles by Liangfei Qiu

Liangfei Qiu

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration

Hsing Kenneth Cheng

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business

Jingchuan Pu

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration

Date Written: October 1, 2016

Abstract

Recently, large companies are experimenting with corporate prediction markets run among their employees. In the present study, we develop an analytical model to analyze the effects of information precision and social interactions on prediction market performance. We find that increased precision of public information is not always beneficial to the prediction market accuracy because of the “hidden profiles” effect: the information-aggregation mechanism places a larger-than-efficient weight on existing public information. We show that a socially embedded prediction market with information sharing among participants may help correct such inefficiency and improve the prediction market performance. We also identify conditions under which increased precision of public information is detrimental in a non-networked prediction market and in a socially embedded prediction market. These results should be of interest to practitioners as the managerial implications highlight the detrimental effect of public information and the role of social networking among employees in a corporate prediction market.

Keywords: Prediction Markets, Social Networks, Public Information, Information Sharing, Hidden Profiles

JEL Classification: D83, G14, M15

Suggested Citation

Qiu, Liangfei and Cheng, Hsing Kenneth and Pu, Jingchuan, 'Hidden Profiles' in Corporate Prediction Markets: The Impact of Public Information Precision and Social Interactions (October 1, 2016). Forthcoming, MIS Quarterly . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2846431

Liangfei Qiu (Contact Author)

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration ( email )

Gainesville, FL 32611
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/qiuliangfei/

Hsing Kenneth Cheng

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business ( email )

P.O. Box 117169
Gainesville, FL 32611-7169
United States
352-392-7068 (Phone)
352-392-5438 (Fax)

Jingchuan Pu

University of Florida - Warrington College of Business Administration ( email )

Gainesville, FL 32611
United States

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