What Is the Probability of Receiving a US Patent?

24 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2016

See all articles by Michael Carley

Michael Carley

Independent

Deepak Hegde

New York University (NYU) - Leonard N. Stern School of Business

Alan C. Marco

Georgia Institute of Technology - School of Public Policy

Date Written: January 1, 2014

Abstract

We follow the prosecution histories of the 2.15 million new patent applications filed at the US Patent and Trademark Office between 1996 and 2005 to calculate patent allowance rates. 55.8% of the applications emerged as patents without using continuation procedures to spawn related applications. The success rate of applications decreased substantially from 1996 to 2005, particularly for applications in the “Drugs and Medical Instruments” and “Computers and Communications” fields. Applications filed by large firms are more likely to emerge as patents than those filed by small firms. We discuss the implications of our findings for inventors, policy makers, and social scientists who use successful patent applications as indicators of innovation.

Keywords: patent

JEL Classification: O34

Suggested Citation

Carley, Michael and Hegde, Deepak and Marco, Alan C., What Is the Probability of Receiving a US Patent? (January 1, 2014). USPTO Economic Working Paper 2013-2, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2849631 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2849631

Michael Carley

Independent

Deepak Hegde

New York University (NYU) - Leonard N. Stern School of Business ( email )

44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-160
New York, NY NY 10012
United States

Alan C. Marco (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology - School of Public Policy ( email )

685 Cherry St.
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
United States

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