The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

15 Pages Posted: 27 Sep 2001  

Ivo Welch

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September 2001

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey of 510 finance and economics professors. The consensus forecast for the 1-year equity premium is about 3% to 3.5%, the consensus forecast for the 30-year equity premium (arithmetic) is about 5% to 5.5%. The consensus 30-year stock market forecast is about 10%. These forecasts are considerably lower than those taken just 3 years ago.

Keywords: Equity Premium

JEL Classification: G00, G10, G30, F4

Suggested Citation

Welch, Ivo, The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited (September 2001). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=285169

Ivo Welch (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) ( email )

110 Westwood Plaza
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310-825-2508 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ivo-welch.info

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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