The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

Welch, Ivo

The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325

15 Pages Posted: 27 Sep 2001

See all articles by Ivo Welch

Ivo Welch

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September 2001

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey of 510 finance and economics professors. The consensus forecast for the 1-year equity premium is about 3% to 3.5%, the consensus forecast for the 30-year equity premium (arithmetic) is about 5% to 5.5%. The consensus 30-year stock market forecast is about 10%. These forecasts are considerably lower than those taken just 3 years ago.

Keywords: Equity Premium

JEL Classification: G00, G10, G30, F4

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Welch, Ivo, The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited (September 2001). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=285169