Conditional Cash Transfers and Electoral Behavior: Experimental Evidence from Mexico
45 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2016
Date Written: October 14, 2016
Recent research launched an intense debate over whether conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs affect electoral behavior in Mexico. Using experimental data, I analyze the effects of CCT treatment on incumbent party support and voter turnout in multiple levels of Mexican elections. I find that both sides of the debate are partially correct: CCTs boost voter turnout, but they have no effect on incumbent party support. Moreover, the evidence suggests that an alternative mechanism produces the positive effect on voter turnout. My findings join a small but growing literature that challenges whether CCTs lead to increased vote share for the incumbent party in the Global South.
Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfers, Electoral Behavior, Field Experiment, Progresa, Mexico, Global South
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