Methods for Analysing Mortgage Markets

74 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2017

See all articles by Darren Butterworth

Darren Butterworth

Durham University - Department of Economics and Finance

Damien Fennell

Government of the United Kingdom - Financial Services Authority

Georgia Latsi

Independent

massimiliano rimarchi

European Banking Authority

Date Written: November 19, 2015

Abstract

The core element of the 2012 Mortgage Market Review (MMR) recommendations – the responsible lending rules – aimed to ensure that borrowers would in future only be able to take out ‘affordable’ mortgages. During the development of the new policy and to explore its likely impact, a method was needed to measure and judge mortgage affordability, using the data available at the time.

This paper presents research undertaken for the MMR into three potential mortgage affordability metrics. These were based on: the debt service ratio (DSR), an expenditure-adjusted DSR and a quality of underwriting (QoU) score. The DSR measures evaluated affordability by looking at causal factors (household income, expenditure and mortgage characteristics), whereas the QoU score focused on mortgage outcomes (whether the borrower subsequently went into arrears or the home was repossessed).

This report sets out the theoretical and practical advantages and limitations of these approaches. To assess the impacts of the proposed affordability rules, we also developed a methodology for exploring changes in the well-being of borrowers. This enabled us to compare the gains in well-being when borrowers were stopped from taking out unaffordable loans, with the loss in well-being caused if the same rules blocked mortgages that in reality would not have become impaired.

For the MMR analysis, given data constraints at the time, a hybrid affordability metric was preferred, based on the QoU methodology but also using the DSR. An important finding, however, was that the expenditure-adjusted DSR is likely to offer the most valuable method for informing future mortgage policy development, as improved expenditure data becomes available in 2015.

Overall, it is hoped that the methodological insights offered here will be valuable to other researchers working in the highly topical area of mortgage affordability.

Keywords: Micro-Simulation, Well-Being Analysis, Cost-Benefit-Analysis, Mortgages, Financial Regulation, Conduct Regulation, Affordability, Lending

JEL Classification: G20, C54

Suggested Citation

Butterworth, Darren and Fennell, Damien and Latsi, Georgia and rimarchi, massimiliano, Methods for Analysing Mortgage Markets (November 19, 2015). FCA Occasional Paper No. 11. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2854827

Darren Butterworth (Contact Author)

Durham University - Department of Economics and Finance

Durham, DH1 3HY
United Kingdom

Damien Fennell

Government of the United Kingdom - Financial Services Authority ( email )

25 The North Colonnade
Canary Wharf
London E14 5HS
United Kingdom

Georgia Latsi

Independent ( email )

9740 49th Ave NE
Seattle, 98115

Massimiliano Rimarchi

European Banking Authority ( email )

Floor 46
One Canada Square, Canary Wharf
London, E14 5AA
United Kingdom

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