Unstable Correlations between Atmospheric CO2 and Surface Temperature

Abstract

Detrended correlation analysis in the sample period 1958-2015 shows the expected logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and surface temperature at an annual time scale. However, the correlation is found to be sensitive to small changes in endpoints that define the sample period. The extent of this instability is described and a resampling procedure is demonstrated for a robust estimation of the statistical significance of correlation under these conditions.

Keywords: IPCC, fossil fuel emissions, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, CO2, GHG forcing, greenhouse effect, atmospheric composition, global warming, climate change, AGW, resampling, bootstrap, applied statistics