Looking for Local Labor-Market Effects of NAFTA

39 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2016 Last revised: 19 Nov 2016

See all articles by John McLaren

John McLaren

University of Virginia; NBER

Shushanik Hakobyan

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 3, 2015


Using US Census data for 1990-2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on US wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry’s vulnerability to Mexican imports, and each locality’s dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports).

Keywords: NAFTA, Wage Growth, Local Labor Markets

JEL Classification: F16, F13, J31

Suggested Citation

McLaren, John and Hakobyan, Shushanik, Looking for Local Labor-Market Effects of NAFTA (April 3, 2015). Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 98, No. 4, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2861511 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2861511

John McLaren (Contact Author)

University of Virginia ( email )

P.O. Box 400182
Charlottesville, VA 22904-4182
United States
434-924-3994 (Phone)
434-982-2904 (Fax)


1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Shushanik Hakobyan

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
PlumX Metrics