Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the EMS

Fernández Rodríguez, Fernando; Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon; Andrada Félix, Julián

doi:10.2139/ssrn.286152

Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the EMS

21 Pages Posted: 4 Oct 2001

Fernando Fernández Rodríguez

University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Faculty of Economic Science

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

Complutense Institute for International Studies

Julián Andrada Félix

University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Faculty of Economic Science

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2000

Abstract

In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. Our results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a nonlinear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.

Keywords: Nearest-neighbour prediction methods, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

JEL Classification: C53, F31

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Fernández Rodríguez, Fernando and Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon and Andrada Félix, Julián, Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the EMS (September 2000). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=286152 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.286152