Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model

65 Pages Posted: 6 Nov 2001

See all articles by Andrew W. Lo

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

Jiang Wang

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2001

Abstract

We derive an intertemporal capital asset pricing model with multiple assets and heterogeneous investors, and explore its implications for the behavior of trading volume and asset returns. Assets contain two types of risks: market risk and the risk of changing market conditions. We show that investors trade only in two portfolios: the market portfolio, and a hedging portfolio, which allows them to hedge the dynamic risk. This implies that trading volume of individual assets exhibit a two-factor structure, and their factor loadings depend on their weights in the hedging portfolio. This allows us to empirically identify the hedging portfolio using volume data. We then test the two properties of the hedging portfolio: its return provides the best predictor of future market returns and its return together with the return of the market portfolio are the two risk factors determining the cross-section of asset returns.

Keywords: Trading Volume, Asset Pricing, Market Microstructure, Market Efficiency

JEL Classification: G12, G11, G10

Suggested Citation

Lo, Andrew W. and Wang, Jiang, Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (October 2001). MIT Sloan Working Paper No. 4217-01. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=286324 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.286324

Andrew W. Lo (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

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Jiang Wang

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

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China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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