Estimating Age-Specific Mortality Using Calibrated Splines

Posted: 4 Nov 2016

Date Written: October 18, 2016


I adapt Schmertmann's Calibrated Spline method to the problem of estimating a complete mortality schedule from abridged data. I demonstrate its ability to fit the range of mortality profiles seen across the epidemiological transition. I find that it is as accurate as current popular methods across closed age groups and superior to them when extrapolating into the open age group. I show that the method is naturally suited to small populations where sample variance is significant.

Keywords: Mortality, Calibrated Spline

JEL Classification: J10, C14

Suggested Citation

Dyrting, Sigurd, Estimating Age-Specific Mortality Using Calibrated Splines (October 18, 2016). Available at SSRN: or

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