Does Reality TV Induce Real Effects? A Response to Jaeger, Joyce, and Kaestner (2016)

19 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2016

See all articles by Melissa S. Kearney

Melissa S. Kearney

University of Maryland - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Phillip B. Levine

Wellesley College; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Abstract

This paper presents a response to Jaeger, Joyce, and Kaestner's (JJK) recent critique (IZA Discussion Paper No. 10317) of our 2015 paper "Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing." In terms of replication, those authors are able to confirm every result in our paper. In terms of reassessment, the substance of their critique rests on the claim that the parallel trends assumption, necessary to attribute causation to our findings, is not satisfied. We present three main responses:(1) there is no evidence of a parallel trends assumption violation during our sample window of 2005 through 2010; (2) the finding of a false placebo test result during one particular earlier window of time does not invalidate the finding of a discrete break in trend at the time of the show's introduction; (3) the results of our analysis are robust to virtually all alternative econometric specifications and sample windows that JJK consider. We conclude that this critique does not pose a serious threat to the interpretation of our 2015 findings. We maintain the position that our earlier paper is informative about the causal effect of 16 and Pregnant on teen birth rates.

Keywords: teen childbearing, media

JEL Classification: J13, L82

Suggested Citation

Kearney, Melissa S. and Levine, Phillip B., Does Reality TV Induce Real Effects? A Response to Jaeger, Joyce, and Kaestner (2016). IZA Discussion Paper No. 10318. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2864818

Melissa S. Kearney (Contact Author)

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Phillip B. Levine

Wellesley College ( email )

106 Central Street
Wellesley, MA 02181
United States
781-283-2162 (Phone)
781-283-2177 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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