A Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of Li-Ion Batteries for Light-Duty Passenger Vehicle Electrification

Journal of Power Sources, Volume 273, Pages 966–980, January 2015

Posted: 17 Nov 2016

See all articles by Apurba Sakti

Apurba Sakti

MIT Energy Initiative

Jeremy J. Michalek

Carnegie Mellon University

Erica R.H. Fuchs

Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

Jay Whitacre

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Engineering & Public Policy; Aquion Energy

Date Written: January 1, 2015

Abstract

We conduct a techno-economic analysis of Li-ion NMC-G prismatic pouch battery and pack designs for electric vehicle applications. We develop models of power capability and manufacturing operations to identify the minimum cost cell and pack designs for a variety of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) requirements. We find that economies of scale in battery manufacturing are reached quickly at a production volume of ~200e300 MWh annually. Increased volume does little to reduce unit costs, except potentially indirectly through factors such as experience, learning, and innovation. We also find that vehicle applications with larger energy requirements are able to utilize cheaper cells due in part to the use of thicker electrodes. The effect on cost can be substantial. In our base case, we estimate pack-level battery production costs of ~$545 kWh-1 for a PHEV with a 10 mile (16 km) all-electric range (PHEV10) and ~$230 kWh-1 for a BEV with a 200 mile (320 km) allelectric range (BEV200). This 58% reduction, from $545 kWh-1 to $230 kWh-1 , is a larger effect than the uncertainty represented by our optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Electrodes thicker than about 100 or 125 microns are not currently used in practice due to manufacturing and durability concerns, but relaxing this constraint could further lower the cost of larger capacity BEV200 packs by up to an additional 8%.

Keywords: Electric Vehicle, Lithium-Ion Battery, Battery Design, Production Cost, Electrode Thickness

Suggested Citation

Sakti, Apurba and Michalek, Jeremy J. and Fuchs, Erica Renee and Whitacre, Jay, A Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of Li-Ion Batteries for Light-Duty Passenger Vehicle Electrification (January 1, 2015). Journal of Power Sources, Volume 273, Pages 966–980, January 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2868412

Apurba Sakti (Contact Author)

MIT Energy Initiative ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Jeremy J. Michalek

Carnegie Mellon University ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

Erica Renee Fuchs

Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

Jay Whitacre

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Engineering & Public Policy ( email )

129 Baker Hall
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
United States

Aquion Energy ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA
United States

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