Asylum Seekers and House Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract

We estimate the effect of asylum seekers on house prices in England and Wales from 2004 to 2015, and find, using panel data and time series methods, that the government's dispersal policies have had small but statistically significant negative effects on housing prices, especially for lower-priced and lower-quality housing units. Our panel data regressions rely on variation across time and localities, and account for endogeneity bias using instrumental variables, to identify these causal effects. Time series regressions depend on plausibly exogenous nationwide flows of new asylum seekers, and provide evidence that negative house price effects are larger in areas that supported Brexit.