Quantifying the Local and Spatial Effects of Alcohol Outlets on Crime

Abstract

This paper estimates the relationship between alcohol outlets and crime at micro place street units in Washington, D.C. The analysis tests several spatial hypothesis on the local and spatial diffusion effects of on-premise and off-premise alcohol outlets on crime motivated by routine activities theory as well as theories that emphasize individual alcohol consumption. Findings show that the spatial diffusion effects of alcohol outlets are larger than the local effects, the effects of on-premise and off-premise outlets are similar in magnitude, and alcohol outlets have larger effects on inter-personal crimes than burglary. These findings are interpreted as favoring routine activities theories for why alcohol outlets increase crime, as opposed to prior research which emphasizes individual alcohol consumption.

Keywords: alcohol outlets, micro place, routine activities theory, diffusion