Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany

28 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2001  

Harm Bandholz

University of Hamburg

Michael Funke

University of Hamburg - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: October 2001

Abstract

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.

Keywords: Business Cycles, Leading Indicators, Turning Points, Markov Switching, Germany

JEL Classification: C32, C53

Suggested Citation

Bandholz, Harm and Funke, Michael, In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (October 2001). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 571. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=287114

Harm Bandholz

University of Hamburg

Von-Melle-Park 5
20146 Hamburg
Germany

Michael Funke (Contact Author)

University of Hamburg - Department of Economics ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 5
room 2128 C rise
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Paper statistics

Downloads
213
Rank
120,971
Abstract Views
1,697