The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand

50 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2016

See all articles by Rebecca Edwards

Rebecca Edwards

Reserve Bank of Australia

Fabian Lange

McGill University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 28, 2013

Abstract

Three fundamental forces have shaped labor markets over the last 50 years: the secular increase in the returns to education, educational upgrading, and the integration of large numbers of women into the workforce. We modify the Katz and Murphy (1992) framework to predict the structure of the labor market in 2030. Even though the share of educated females in the workforce will grow rapidly, the supply response will not suffice to offset the trend in demand towards skilled, female labor. Wage growth over the next 20 years will continue to favor college educated workers and in particular college educated females.

Suggested Citation

Edwards, Rebecca and Lange, Fabian, The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand (November 28, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2872299 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2872299

Rebecca Edwards

Reserve Bank of Australia ( email )

65, Martin Place
GPO Box 3947
Sydney, NSW 2001
Australia

Fabian Lange (Contact Author)

McGill University ( email )

1001 Sherbrooke St. W
Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5
Canada

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