Economic Reform During the First Four Years of Kim Jong-Un's Rule: An Analysis Based on the CRE Model
International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1–32
32 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2016
Date Written: 2016
The paper evaluates the effects of domestic and external actions on the probability of reform in North Korea. It applies the theory of Janos Kornai on socialist systems, in particular the main line of causation, as well as elements of rational choice theory. The CRE model provides a tool for systematically processing information on North Korea that is typically incomplete. The effects of 23 actions that have taken place since 2012 in the fields of ideology, property rights, coordination, military affairs and external influence are discussed. The combined outcome is mixed and corresponds with reality, where neither a retreat to pre-1990 socialism nor a full-fledged reform could be observed. However, new insights are found on single effects and their interplay. This provides a practical tool for scholars who aim for a systematic understanding of the past, and for politicians who need to conduct an advance impact analysis of future policies.
Keywords: Korea (North and/or South), North Korea (politics and society), North Korean Economy, North Korea, North Korean Studies
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