Disruption Risk Mitigation in Supply Chains - The Risk Exposure Index Revisited

45 Pages Posted: 28 Nov 2016 Last revised: 16 Jun 2018

See all articles by Sarah Yini Gao

Sarah Yini Gao

Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business

David Simchi-Levi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - School of Engineering

Chung-Piaw Teo

NUS Business School - Department of Decision Sciences

Zhenzhen Yan

Nanyang Technological University

Date Written: November 25, 2016

Abstract

Simchi-Levi et al. (2014, 2015a) proposed a novel approach using the Time-To-Recover (TTR) parameters to analyze the Risk Exposure Index (REI) of supply chains under disruption. This approach is able to capture the cascading effects of disruptions in the supply chains, albeit in simplified environments -- TTRs are deterministic, and at most one node in the supply chain can be disrupted. In this paper, we proposed a new method to integrate probabilistic assessment of disruption risks into the REI approach and measure supply chain resiliency by analyzing the Worst-case CVaR (WCVaR) of total lost sales under disruptions.

We show that the optimal strategic inventory positioning strategy in this model can be fully characterized by a conic program. We identify appropriate cuts that can be added to the formulation to ensure zero duality gap in the conic program. In this way, the optimal primal and dual solutions to the conic program can be used to shed light on comparative statics in the supply chain risk mitigation problem. This information can help supply chain risk managers focus their mitigation efforts on critical suppliers and/or installations that will have a greater impact on the performance of the supply chain when disrupted.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, disruption management, time-to-survive, sensitivity analysis, completely positive programming.

Suggested Citation

Gao, Sarah Yini and Simchi-Levi, David and Teo, Chung-Piaw and Yan, Zhenzhen, Disruption Risk Mitigation in Supply Chains - The Risk Exposure Index Revisited (November 25, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2875596 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2875596

Sarah Yini Gao (Contact Author)

Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business ( email )

469 Bukit Timah Road
Singapore 912409
Singapore

David Simchi-Levi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - School of Engineering ( email )

MA
United States

Chung-Piaw Teo

NUS Business School - Department of Decision Sciences ( email )

15 Kent Ridge Drive
Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ 1 8-69
119245
Singapore

Zhenzhen Yan

Nanyang Technological University ( email )

MAS 05-19, 21 Nanyang Link
Singapore, 637371
Singapore

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